Hurricane Dorian, , , , , ??

Discussion in 'Surfing' started by dingpatch, Aug 28, 2019.

  1. dingpatch

    dingpatch Well-Known Member

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    Florida USA
    Yesterday was truly sketchy for me here in Melbourne, FLA! We were the Bull's Eye! Model runs this morning are not as bad but, EVERYTHING depends on the strength, location and timing of the high pressure ridge that's supposed to form/move in. I could get a CAT 4 Monday morning or, nothing! Getting things ready to pack up my Springer Spaniel girl and Get the Heck Out of Dodge if need be. I'm on the mainland but only 5 miles from the shore. I know my house would not make it if a CAT 4 nailed us here in Melbourne. Tomorrow morning's runs will Tell Our Tale.

    I've lived my whole life here. This Hurricane Thing is way past being "exciting" for me. The earthquakes in California are one-thing but, just sitting here watching something like this come at you for a week gets to be a bit much. I'd rather stick a Ghost Pepper up my butt, it would be more comfortable!!!!!

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    Last edited: Aug 28, 2019
  2. OCSURFER32

    OCSURFER32 Well-Known Member

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    Watching closely down here !!!!!
     
  3. dingpatch

    dingpatch Well-Known Member

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    Florida USA
    Ya, OC! I've read a few of the weather blogs and there is a good deal of "uncertainty" about all the if/when/wheres etc. of the high pressure ridge that is supposed to form/move in. Dorian could really get CAT 4 strong, get East of the Bahamas, run into the ridge and take a hard left into Dade County!! The model runs through today and tonight could be Very Interesting.
     
  4. Driftwood

    Driftwood Well-Known Member

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    Stay safe DP. That's the real issue.

    Man, I grew in in Southern California and I'll take quakes such as I've experienced them any day. Good shock the day we got married and no one except for a couple of out-of-town guests even batted an eye. Now watching the richter scale climb over a couple of days and not knowing where it would peak or for how long, that's more akin to what you're doing. Take care.
     
    Andrew Johnson likes this.
  5. Artz

    Artz Well-Known Member

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    Reporting in from Vero, looking at the map for an escape route. Keeping my fingers crossed.
     
  6. dingpatch

    dingpatch Well-Known Member

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    Apr 2, 2014
    Florida USA
    Poop! I'm back in the Bulls Eye of the 11:00 NHC track. BUT, the "cone" covers from Miami to Savanah!!! Still plenty of time for the track to change dramatically and, as such, surprise the You-Know-What out of a lot of unsuspecting victims.
     
  7. shadydave

    shadydave Well-Known Member

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    Ayer Ma USA
    Be safe gentleman, my son and daughter in-law live in palm beach gardens so I’m watching closely as well. Prepare for the worst and hope for the best.
     
    walkingtheplank, strez and OCSURFER32 like this.
  8. dingpatch

    dingpatch Well-Known Member

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    Apr 2, 2014
    Florida USA
    Some of the tropical weather Blogs are talking about the ULL to the NW of Dorian, etc. , , , , Point being is that if certain interactions do take place, then Dorian may start to move much more to the WNW, rather than the current NW movement. South Florida needs to wake up and stay alert!!! The spaghetti model tracks have moved more to the South. But, for now, NHC is still pointing to Cape Canaveral. And, as always, tomorrow morning could be a Totally Different Picture. Keep your Depends undergarments handy folks. The first image below is "static" and does not change. The one below that from the NHC is live and will update as changed .

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    Last edited: Aug 28, 2019
  9. dingpatch

    dingpatch Well-Known Member

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    Apr 2, 2014
    Florida USA
    Well, it does seem that the models are now pointing much more south! The Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) points mostly to South Florida (Jupiter?). Although, the 18zulu is spread out north/south now.

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    Last edited: Aug 28, 2019
  10. jonbiz

    jonbiz Active Member

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    Jan 11, 2016
    Wilmington NC
    Stay safe down there. Love hate with hurricane season.
     
    strez likes this.

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